Gravenreach
MODULEMoves LTVMoves LTV:CACMoves Repeat Purchase Rate

CohortPilot

LTV and retention modeling.

CohortPilot ingests your order, customer, and ad-spend data and produces channel-segmented cohort curves. It tells you the 90-day, 180-day, and 365-day LTV by acquisition channel — and flags the channels whose cohorts asymptote below your CAC line.

Median impactVERIFIED
+0.6xmedian, 60d
Blended LTV:CAC, across customer cohort using CohortPilot.
KPIs moved
LTVLTV:CACRepeat Purchase Rate

What it does

Five capabilities. One verified pipeline.

01

Channel-segmented cohort curves

Meta, TikTok, Google, organic, email, referral — every channel gets its own curve.

02

First-product cohort segmentation

The first SKU a customer buys predicts their LTV. CohortPilot quantifies it.

03

Predictive payback flagging

ML model predicts which acquired cohorts will hit 1.5x LTV:CAC within 12 months — and which won't.

04

Repeat-purchase trigger logic

Recommended win-back send windows, by cohort, based on the empirical repurchase-timing distribution.

05

Verification Link on every prediction

Every forecast shows the underlying cohort size, asymptote confidence, and the historical analogue cohort it learned from.

Setup

Live in three steps.

01

Connect Shopify and ad accounts

One-click read-only OAuth. Klaviyo and Recharge optional but recommended.

02

We model the cohorts

First curves available in 4 hours. Channel and first-product segmentation overnight.

03

You reallocate spend

Channels that asymptote below 1.5x LTV:CAC get flagged. Reallocate before another month burns.

Sample insight

What an alert actually looks like.

Every alert ships with its Verification Link — the exact source snippet, URL, and timestamp we scraped it from.

CohortPilot alert
VERIFIED

TikTok cohorts from Q1 are asymptoting at 0.84x LTV:CAC — below payback.

CohortPilot recommends pausing 60% of TikTok ad budget and reallocating to your Meta lookalike-3 segment, which is currently at 2.1x LTV:CAC and still climbing.

Source · Q1 2026 acquisition cohorts, n=4,2172026-05-15T02:00:00Z
Cohort 2026-Q1-TikTok · 4,217 customers · 90d LTV $42.18 · CAC $50.04 · ratio 0.84x.
/scans/cohortpilot/q1-2026-tiktok
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